A recent article has been floating around with Habano SA stating they are are calculating that upon the lift of the embargo, Cubans would grab 25 to 30% of the us cigar market. They go on to say in a few years they could eventually gain up to 70% of the market. Look Cuban cigars are excellent and will definitely increase interest in the cigar community. however, i feel as though they are going to run into trouble meeting the demand for the us market. Also a lot of smokers already have their set brands and companies like Drew Estate, Fuente, Padron, Davidoff, and Montecristo Dominican have cult followings. I feel as though this is a little exorbitant. Here is a great article by Halfwheel describing this. http://halfwheel.com/could-cuba-meet-demand-of-u-s-market/80258
Cubans Eye 30% of US Market...
- Thread starter vcut89
- Start date
BradMc
<b>Charity Liaison</b><br>BoM September 07
I enjoy both NC and CC....... That is pretty aggressive thinking by Habano SA, as they push there production, they will have to watch there quality control , as in the cigar bomb they went down hill for trying for quantity, it took them a few years to bounce back....
I agree with Brad. If they start pumping out cigars at a quantity needed to absorb 70% of the US market, there will likely be a drop in quality. Which would be a huge shame since that is such a staple in CC's.
I, like many other, am very interested to see how CC's will be introduced into the US. I see there being a push for another hike in "high end cigar" taxes once they become available. You know damn well the US government isn't going to just allow these things in the US without taking more than their fair share of the "pie".
I, like many other, am very interested to see how CC's will be introduced into the US. I see there being a push for another hike in "high end cigar" taxes once they become available. You know damn well the US government isn't going to just allow these things in the US without taking more than their fair share of the "pie".
I totally agree. I will say that some of the best cigars ive ever had have been cubans. However, countries such as the DR and Nicaragua have come along way to match up. If i had to choose between an Opus X, a Padron 26, or a Montecristo #2...It would be a difficult choice....
I think you nailed it. New high demand product = new high percent tax opportunity.
Jfire
BoM 9/9' 9/11' 8/12'
Not if you only had 10 dollars.......
AlohaStyle
BoM Sept '12 & Aug '13
Taxes my friend. If/when the embargo ends, we will still be better off ordering overseas in regards to price. You want to buy a Monte #2 in New York, $10 won't come close.
Last edited:
here's the article i posted yesterday
http://fortune.com/2015/02/23/cuban-cigar-maker-eyes-25-30-of-u-s-market-if-embargo-lifted/
http://fortune.com/2015/02/23/cuban-cigar-maker-eyes-25-30-of-u-s-market-if-embargo-lifted/
hdroadglide
BoM x 2, BoY 2011
quality has been an issue for cuban cigars for a decade. do you really think they aren't currently working at max production? i fear that not only will quality control disappear, the rise in counterfeits will EXPLODE!
AlohaStyle
BoM Sept '12 & Aug '13
Yes I think they are not working at max production. Just look at their export history... They exported almost 450 million cigars in 2006 and just 85 million in 2013. The economy hit the cigar business, including Cuba. I'm not saying they can easily jump back up to 450 million cigars overnight, but they definitely have room and the ability to produce more.
Also, factories have been shut down for remodeling recently. Look at the famed Partagas factory. It's been closed almost 2 years now doing a major remodel. I'm not sure when they are reopening, but that automatically increases their ability to produce once it reopens.
I don't think anybody could honestly argue quality can and will take a hit if they decide to mass ship to the US. And I also agree counterfeiting will explode more so than it is now.
hdroadglide
BoM x 2, BoY 2011
i agree, but i would question the "remodeling" of factories and any "temporary" shut downs. we will NEVER get true information from their industry because it is controlled by the government and they will release only what they want to be known. also, do you suppose that there are that many experienced rollers to jump production by 400 million cigars????? i can't help but believe that many experienced rollers have gotten away to the u.s. or latin america, which is going to further the decline of quality. if you ever get the chance to talk with Jaime Garcia, who was one of the head of q.c. in cuba before they left the island, you'll hear first hand how things were not up to snuff.
can you imagine how many glass top boxes of cohibas are going to be floating around the u.s. soon? (not the one you sent me, ara. i know it was legit!)
AlohaStyle
BoM Sept '12 & Aug '13
I was at the Partagas factory right after they shut it down. I talked with Hamlet who is a main guy currently working at Partagas and I have no doubt they are remodeling it. The Partagas factory is their flagship factory in regards to the public. And like I said above, it's not likely Cuba can jump back up to 450 million cigars overnight. If any country can get rollers "up to speed" I would say it's Cuba. It's a small country and cigars are part of their culture. For instance at the El Laguito factory, they don't simply "advertise" open jobs, it's all employee/family referrals. Most employees are family members of current employees. It's simply the culture of Cuba.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Feb 22, 2015
- Messages
- 111
I really hope you brothers stateside don't get tax smashed like us Canadian brethren. A decently good CC smoke here costs minimum $12+ a pop and a gradual rise with higher end smokes hitting $25+ Not to say that you can't find something a little lower than $12 bucks but I don't feel like smoking a Guantanamera.
I do wonder if they can or will be taxed at a higher rate than other imported tobacco. Or if the overall tax rate on cigars will be raised.
The counterfeit goods market will explode.
The counterfeit goods market will explode.
Here's the way I look at it, will the government be satisfied with increased taxing on 30% of an available product, or will they increase tax on 100% of that product? I have my opinions, but I'll let everyone decide for themselves.
And I agree with you, counterfeits will ultimately be an issue across the board, not just focused on CC.
Personally, I think that we as consumers will play a major roll in the prices and taxes associated with any lifts in the ban. I'm sure there will be a spike in CC sales initially. That would drive the prices of non-CCs down temporarily I would imagine. Once consumers realize they can still get their favorite smokes, possibly at a better price point, the CC sales will experience a temporary decrease as everyone rushes to stock up on the non-CCs while prices have dipped. Obviously that should make the demand of the CCs drop a little. I can see this going back and fourth for months, until the markets on both sides eventually level out. I could be way off base here as well though. Only time will tell, and it will be interesting to see how this all plays out. One thing is for sure though. The government will definitely get their cut.