No problem. I love letting people know what goes on. The reason is because it helps people appreciate their cigar more.
The big picture is the hardest aspect at times. You need to make the whole sequence work. It is easy to focus on one aspect.
Forecasting is not too difficult. Basically you find out how many are talking about it and make a certain percentage more. While it is not likely that everyone talking about it will buy at a shop or order, it is possible. Social media outlets, review boards, forums, and blogs help with this a lot. My boss and I both do that since no one person can catch everything.
With pricing, some of it is out of our control. Tobacco costs a certain amout, same with bands (most people do not realize something that small factors in), boxes, seals (yes, even that one sticker), the factory and so on. After that is done, you figure out how much it is a stick. What I do to predict (at least online) is find a state tax (usually higher than average) and add that, plus a markup a store would at the price we feel is the appropriate amount of profit margin to sell wholesale. Determining wholesale is to pay us, expand the company, and replenish. The reason I add the other things to the online store is the fact that we want people smoking in stores and we do not want to undercut those stores. On top of that the extra money used goes into marketing and production as a means of getting into more stores so people can go to a local B&M.
If one has a single line (like a name, for instance Romeo y Julieta) and wants to produce a new blend, it is usually done yearly or every other year. Sometimes it is not for some established brands that sell no matter what. That takes years to get to though and rarely does one get that. Also, some (myself included) look for something that has what the other is missing. Like I love the Cremo Classic, but I am a huge maduro fan, so I want some of those elements (same with my boss), so we look into that. We see what people want. That is the biggest factor. Do people want a maduro? If not, then what?
Getting tobaccos can be easy depending on what source you use, and what they know. Sometimes... it can be a royal pain in the ass. Factories want a minimum order usually. That is if it is in production though. Though some sellers will not just sell a half a bail, but a minimum of ten. Then you have to figure out how to use that. Many are nice though if you are starting a new blend since they want their tobacco in it. During the blending process, many things are not set in stone. You can use many different tobaccos. After that, they want their minimum. Some are picky though.
Packaging material for future production, and everything else, is factored into the price of the cigar. We also budget. While we can have a much nicer box at the current margin, and take a smaller margin to help it sell, that money might come from a previous line. If that starts waning, then there are problems, so you can never assume that will keep you afloat. Some of the money is saved for future ventures too. So, if we have $10,000 to spend on a new cigar, we won't spend the whole amount. We get everything we can for each dollar.
Now, making all of this work might sound like a headache (and it can be), but usually once you know what people want, you let the math do its own job. The cost of production determines more than a paycheck. That is key on that end (for monetary aspects). In the end though, it is the cigar. I would rather have a customer pay an extra dollar or two for a fantastic cigar, than a little less for crap while I pocket it. Because while with one you might not buy too often, the other you will only buy once. Though when making an economical stick you do not make as much per stick, try to provide the best (they have a better chance of a flaw) and have quantity. With high end ones, quality is key. At the end I (and my boss) ask "would we pay this much for this stick" and if the answer is no, we see where we can lower prices in the future as to avoid that again. Though we will change boxes, bands, or whatever before lowering the quality of that cigar. At Cremo though, we like giving the whole package.
Some people have different methods (myself included), but this is a general idea.
