icehog3
Outlaw Hockey Biker
That was a laugh I needed very much today, thank you!
Let the Bitching Begin
- Thread starter Boudie
- Start date
I look back at some of my posts on other forums (only joined here recently) and we have always been bellyachin' about CC prices, "Habanos SA is going to lose customers so the prices will come down and then we'll buy".
But they never do. We end up grudgingly buying and bitching and that price drop never comes. A lot of us shift more into domestic cigars of course.
I know there is also a shortage because of weather, labor, supplies shortage etc.... due to Covid affecting everything in the world.
But the truth of the matter is once prices go up and people get accustomed to the higher prices, the merchants and manufacturers seem to hang on to those higher prices even when cost of sales goes down a bit - they NEVER will pass that savings recovery on to the consumer.
Greedy bastards.
Like the extra $ charge or overweight baggage for flights, supposedly temporary when gas prices went up that one summer about 6,8 years ago. Not only did gas prices recover a few months later but over time the charges went up and the weight limits went down.
But they never do. We end up grudgingly buying and bitching and that price drop never comes. A lot of us shift more into domestic cigars of course.
I know there is also a shortage because of weather, labor, supplies shortage etc.... due to Covid affecting everything in the world.
But the truth of the matter is once prices go up and people get accustomed to the higher prices, the merchants and manufacturers seem to hang on to those higher prices even when cost of sales goes down a bit - they NEVER will pass that savings recovery on to the consumer.
Greedy bastards.
Like the extra $ charge or overweight baggage for flights, supposedly temporary when gas prices went up that one summer about 6,8 years ago. Not only did gas prices recover a few months later but over time the charges went up and the weight limits went down.
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Blame the Millennials and Cuba for everything. Problems with hotel rooms in the Caribbean and other things where the supply is limited.
OK not really, it's not the Millennials' fault for being born to the boomers who boomed because of WWII.
But the fact of the matter is Millennials finally outnumber the baby boomers (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/28/millennials-overtake-baby-boomers-as-americas-largest-generation/)
Born between 1981-1996, Millennials have an average age now of 33.5 with a median of @ 38(more Millennials were born earlier than later).
Millennials are in their prime earning years and marriages and births for them are way down. Meaning you've got a lot of 38 year old men making way over six figures with no wife and no kids = lots of disposable income. Even if this group of high earners hovers around 6%-8% and only .5% of those take up the leaf, do the math for 72.1 million (and that's just USA Millennials).
What does this mean? That we have a whole crew of people in their top earning years competing for hotel rooms on that Caribbean beach that isn't getting any bigger, or for luxury cigars where the availability is not increasing [all that much to meet the demand].
Sure, cheap labor countries can pump out smartphones and computers and cars (aside from recent Covid supply issues) but there are only 4 hotels on that one beach on that one Island -or- only a finite limit of cigars that Cuba can pump out of the factories. The slight increase in production just can't keep up with all these new customers flooding into the market place.
Millennials don't remember when a CoRo cost USD $15. Just like I don't remember when they cost USD$8.00. When they went to $15 I happily bought, just starting out buying CCs and the high $15 price was OK by me because I never knew the $8 deal.
And then there are the Millennials in other countries and the growing rich population among 25-65 year olds throughout the world.
What do you think the owners of these mega yachts are smoking?
www.cnbc.com
We gotta lotta competition fellas and it's no surprise that these prices are now astronomical. I think Habanos SAS knows they can get the prices they are asking for for the high end brands.
Warning: Profanity laced rant from the Kid From Brooklyn talking about prices at Starbucks
OK not really, it's not the Millennials' fault for being born to the boomers who boomed because of WWII.
But the fact of the matter is Millennials finally outnumber the baby boomers (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/28/millennials-overtake-baby-boomers-as-americas-largest-generation/)
Born between 1981-1996, Millennials have an average age now of 33.5 with a median of @ 38(more Millennials were born earlier than later).
Millennials are in their prime earning years and marriages and births for them are way down. Meaning you've got a lot of 38 year old men making way over six figures with no wife and no kids = lots of disposable income. Even if this group of high earners hovers around 6%-8% and only .5% of those take up the leaf, do the math for 72.1 million (and that's just USA Millennials).
What does this mean? That we have a whole crew of people in their top earning years competing for hotel rooms on that Caribbean beach that isn't getting any bigger, or for luxury cigars where the availability is not increasing [all that much to meet the demand].
Sure, cheap labor countries can pump out smartphones and computers and cars (aside from recent Covid supply issues) but there are only 4 hotels on that one beach on that one Island -or- only a finite limit of cigars that Cuba can pump out of the factories. The slight increase in production just can't keep up with all these new customers flooding into the market place.
Millennials don't remember when a CoRo cost USD $15. Just like I don't remember when they cost USD$8.00. When they went to $15 I happily bought, just starting out buying CCs and the high $15 price was OK by me because I never knew the $8 deal.
And then there are the Millennials in other countries and the growing rich population among 25-65 year olds throughout the world.
What do you think the owners of these mega yachts are smoking?
Superyacht building boom creates a supply crunch and crew shortage for ultrarich buyers
Shipyards are straining to keep up with demand for superyachts. Wealthy buyers are being told they have to wait three to five years for their custom orders.
www.cnbc.com
We gotta lotta competition fellas and it's no surprise that these prices are now astronomical. I think Habanos SAS knows they can get the prices they are asking for for the high end brands.
Warning: Profanity laced rant from the Kid From Brooklyn talking about prices at Starbucks
@Groucho
As game as I am for a good millennial slam I'm thinking the biggest reason for high Cuban prices is the growth in demand from the Asian market.
As far as travel ie flights, rooms, restaurants, access to national parks, DisneyWorld etc I think we need to remember that today's white collar worker is MOBILE. Many are basically on the job 24/7 and thanks to cell phones, video conferencing, lap tops, readily available WiFi their office is where ever they happen to be. There is also a greater acceptance of off-site work among managers. My wife's big boss spends 6 months of the year working from his travel trailer. Beautiful campground to beautiful campground with an occassional visit to children and grandchildren.
The world is changing and an old dinosaur like me just doesn't fit into it as easily as I would like. But that's the way it's always been, probably always will be.
As game as I am for a good millennial slam I'm thinking the biggest reason for high Cuban prices is the growth in demand from the Asian market.
As far as travel ie flights, rooms, restaurants, access to national parks, DisneyWorld etc I think we need to remember that today's white collar worker is MOBILE. Many are basically on the job 24/7 and thanks to cell phones, video conferencing, lap tops, readily available WiFi their office is where ever they happen to be. There is also a greater acceptance of off-site work among managers. My wife's big boss spends 6 months of the year working from his travel trailer. Beautiful campground to beautiful campground with an occassional visit to children and grandchildren.
The world is changing and an old dinosaur like me just doesn't fit into it as easily as I would like. But that's the way it's always been, probably always will be.
BoneYard
Spent loot on Scotch,Women&Cigars -rest I wasted.
Normal price hikes we’ve seen over the last 30 years and every time people bitch and then finally get over it. However, This is not a price hike. Coro has quandupled in price in the least 4 months and pretty much across the board, everything has at least doubled over night. This is not a price hike, not sure exactly what is going on. But the economics of supply and demand will eventually have Habanos come to Jesus, once the boxes start to pile up in Havana. Might not happen, I could be wrong, but I, like many of Habanos core, loyal enthusiasts, can wait years with just supply in our cabinets, walk-ins and giant coolers. My biggest concern is running out of popcorn while I watch it flush out.
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StogieNinja
Derek | BoM June 2014
I dunno about how it will pan out in the end, but you're spot on here. This is not a normal price hike.
I should have mentioned two good points above:
1.) @Boudie Asian Market is definitely coming into play and really the world population is expanding no matter what, so regardless of Millennials or the mega rich, we are constantly adding more and more people and that beach and the Cuban cigar output is not getting any bigger. So we have more customers competing for the same patch of sand or box of Siglo IVs
Also 2.) that this jump in price is astronomical. This is very different than the slow climb over the years. @BoneYard I hope you're right about the boxes piling up in Havana.
1.) @Boudie Asian Market is definitely coming into play and really the world population is expanding no matter what, so regardless of Millennials or the mega rich, we are constantly adding more and more people and that beach and the Cuban cigar output is not getting any bigger. So we have more customers competing for the same patch of sand or box of Siglo IVs
Also 2.) that this jump in price is astronomical. This is very different than the slow climb over the years. @BoneYard I hope you're right about the boxes piling up in Havana.
BoneYard
Spent loot on Scotch,Women&Cigars -rest I wasted.
I can’t see how they don’t start to pile up. The confounding thing, is that prices on the island (historically the lowest prices worldwide) are currently at or above global prices. Effectively eliminating any tourists that travel to Cuba for cigars and a quick vacation- like many Canadians who were used to doing this as canadian taxes on tobacco alone could almost pay for the trip.
it looks like a complete incompetent shit-show over there. Perhaps it’s the most genius plan ever devised and I’m too stupid to get it,in the meantime, they get no money from me, and I’m sure I’m not alone.
it looks like a complete incompetent shit-show over there. Perhaps it’s the most genius plan ever devised and I’m too stupid to get it,in the meantime, they get no money from me, and I’m sure I’m not alone.
icehog3
Outlaw Hockey Biker
Seeing so many staples out of stock across the board... 25 counts of PSD4, RASS, Choix Supreme, BBFs, Royal Coronas, Connie 1s, Monte 2s etc etc.... I am not sure where this big pile of CCs is. All I see is lots of budget CCs, and even those are getting silly. If they're not rolling a lot of these staples, people for whom money is no object might be snapping them up as soon as they become available? I don't think it bodes well for the near future, and maybe beyond.
BoneYard
Spent loot on Scotch,Women&Cigars -rest I wasted.
There is a current shortage, no question. But like many point out, prices rarely come down unless they start drowning in their own product. So as post covid manpower and supplies come back, production could be back on track within a year. That’s when things get interesting. It’ll happen in a year or two assuming the NC market remains stable or at least as is. But what then after 30-40% of your customer base has found other viable options. I saw Davidoff announced it willl increase production by 35% next year, happy to fill the gap for disillusioned habanos customers.
BoneYard
Spent loot on Scotch,Women&Cigars -rest I wasted.
Yep, and apparently all distributors worldwide will have to purchase with no discounts for quantity. This will fundamentally change the way CCs have been distributed around the world on top of the astronomical price increases. I just don’t see it panning out. The world doesn’t live in Hong Kong.
icehog3
Outlaw Hockey Biker
I'm not as confident, but certainly hope there's light at the end of this tunnel.
BoneYard
Spent loot on Scotch,Women&Cigars -rest I wasted.
I hear you. I’m far from confident though. Unfortunately I see this as the end of Habanos for me for several years at least, which I can accommodate, after that, I could easily move on. Habanos imo, have a long way to go, in terms of quality, before they even enter the “luxury “ market, of which they see themselves apart. if they don’t get it together, with price increases that reflect a quality improvement, I’ll leave the disappointments for someone else to savor.
