While JR's--or more accurately, Lew Rothman's--logic seems to makes perfect sense on the surface, I've learned that
blanket statements usually fail to cover ALL the potential posibilites, and therefore are nothing but a sweeping generalization at best, and FUD at worst.
For example, a LOT of tobacco is produced on small, backwater farms in third-world coountries. Are we to believe that these folks knew about--much less understood--the explosive "cigar boom" going on here? Or that every family farm is known to every cigar manufacturter/buyer? Or that the tobacco buyers milked 100% of all these farmers of 100% of their inventory?
And what about speculators? In any kind of "boom" there are those who believe it
can grow even larger--financial gamblers, if you will, who'd be willing to set aside at least
some tobacco just in case it continued to rise. Are we to believe that 100% of these folks (gamblers & speculators!) sold 100% of their tobacco, leaving no 'gambling' room whatsoever?
And what about the huge number of post-boom failures--you know, the cigar makers who bought tobacco and made cigars, but didn't survive the end of the "boom"? Are we to believe that 100% of the cigar makers used and/or sold 100% of their inventory before going out of business? That there was no tobacco whatsoever in the liquidation process?
While there was an extreme tobacco leaf shortage, did 100% of the cigar makers use 100% of their tobacco inventory? Maybe the big boys at the time like General and Consolidated did, but the smaller outfits? Isn't it plausible that some of them would be worried enough about being able to produce something--anything--that they'd stash at least SOME tobacco for a rainy day? For example, a CA article on Rolando Reyes during the boom said, "Cuba Aliados has nearly $2 million tied up in tobacco inventory." Was that a lie?
Listen, there's no doubt that the massive shortage during the "boom" caused the vast majority of cigar tobacco to be used up. And it's probably a safe bet that a lot of this "aged tobacco" we're seeing today isn't actually aged, whether the cigar maker knows it or not.
But can anyone--even one as connected as Lew--really say with complete authority that 100% of the tobacco produced by 100% of the growers was used during the boom?
I tend doubt such blanked statements; little things always fall through the cracks. Even a few bales here and there could wrap quite a lot of cigars.
My long-winded 2¢
okemyeye