Ha, ha, ha! Man, I love this kind of speculation. We've all been talking and thinking about this since things changed so drastically back in December. I've heard so many interesting theories and ideas, it's just awesome. I've been doing a lot of research and reading tremendous amounts of info in magazines and newspapers on this very subject. I've also had discussions with B&M owners in Florida and California, very knowledgeable people. What amazes me is that everyone has their own interesting little idea and theory on how this thing will go down. So here's mine.
Firstly, there is the whole copyright issue which is a rather large one considering how deeply invested General Cigar has been in these brands. Like
@Senor Perfecto indicated, Altadis owns a 50-percent stake in Cubatabaco, and the two entities form Habanos S.A. Altadis is owned by Imperial Tobacco, one of the world's largest tobacco conglomerates. General Cigar is owned by the other massive conglomerate, Swedish Match. So basically, these two heavyweights will meet in the ring and figure out how best to settle copyright infringement issues. The referee in this bout will the Federal Court System, perhaps even the Supreme Court.
The biggest issue to settling this dispute will be to determine who holds the original rights to the brands. Cubatabaco (the state-run tabacco company started by Fidel Castro after the revolution) clearly holds the rights to the tobacco and therefore the blends of these brands. But I don't think Cubatabaco/Altadis/Imperial Tobacco can lay claim to the brands themselves, because the brands were the intellectual property of the pre-revolution originators. When Castro reclaimed their property in defense of the state and exiled them, they went to other regions to manufacture their brands using, of course, different blends of tobacco: Dominican, Nicaraguan, and Honduran. However, they still retained the original rights to the brand. Years later, the owners sold their brands to Genral Cigar and here we are today.
So technically speaking, General Cigar holds the rights to the original brands, but Habanos S.A. holds the rights to the original blends. And that's where things will get tricky. However, Altadis does hold the rights to both brand and blends of Montecristo, Romeo y Juliette, and Por Larranaga, so there is absolutely no conflict of interest there. When the embargo is lifted, I think we will see those to brands in local B&Ms almost immediately, right alongside their Dominican counterparts.
Then there is the issue of General Cigar's Cohiba brand, which only shares the name with it's Cuban counterpart. Cohiba is a post-revolutionary brand which Fidel Castro originated. It was his own personal brand used for government officials and diplomats. Because of its worldwide appeal, GC shamelessly ripped-off the brand name and made an inferior Dominican version. The Supreme Court has already shot down GC's attempt to retain its copyright of the brand. So I think Habanos S.A.'s Cohiba will prevail, and GC/Swedish Match will be forced to cease production and distribution under the Cohiba name. In the face of a lawsuit, I think GC will discontinue its Cohiba brand and we will see Cuban Cohibas on store shelves not long after the Embargo goes away. But they will be heavily taxed and probably twice the price they are now.
Finally, the possibility that really struck me as quite original and no one has yet mentioned it: Habanos S.A. will make NEW BRANDS specifically for the U.S. MARKET!!!! This will completely undermine GC/Swedish Match if no agreement is reached. There is nothing stopping Habanos S.A. from creating absolutely brand-new brands. In fact, some even speculate that the newly re-branded Vagueros (which shares aboslutely no similarities to the classic pre-revolutionary brands) is a prototype for the American market. Yes, fellahs, Habanos S.A. is now in the process of developing new brands for the American market, just in the event General Cigar tries to protect itself in court and delay Habanos S.A. from competing in the U.S. consumer market. General Cigar has no claim to the blends. Hypothetically speaking, Habanos S.A. will still blend a Ramon Allones Specailly Selected, but simply re-brand that blend for the American market. General Cigar cannot fight that.
As far as the other concerns. Congress must lift the Embargo, but we have the best politicians money can buy. So no problem there. But the taxation will be unreal. Look to Canada and U.K. to find out what prices will be here. The reason we enjoy low prices now is because we buy them from the DUTY-FREE regions in Hong Kong and Switzerland.
As far as seeing Ramon Allones, Bolivar, La Gloria Cubana, Hoyo de Monterrey, Partagas, Punch, Sancho Panza from Habanos S.A. on U.S. shelves any time soon, not going to happen. General Cigar, which owns the original rights of those brands, will fight to the death to prevent Habanos S.A. from distributing those blends here. Unless they reach a 'mutually amicable' agreement, it just won't happen. It would sink General Cigar. So that will most likely be a long and drawn-out contest in Federal Court with 100s of judgements and appeals. Ultimately, General Cigar should win--they own the rights to the original brands, not Cubatobaco (Castro's despotic tobacco company) which siezed those companies during the revolution and forced the original owners in duress to forfeit their rights of ownership. Anything performed under duress--according to our legal system--is usually illegal. By the way, that case will be a legendary legal battle, if I had to guess.
Lastly, all in a nutshell, Cuban cigars will arrive here quickly once the Embargo has lifted. Altadis brands will land in Tampa probably on the next business day and will be in stores that week, just like their Dominican counterparts. After a little legal wrangling, I think GC's Cohiba will be forced to discontinue or be re-branded, and we will see the Cuban version here shortly thereafter. As far as the core GC's brands, we will never see those in the U.S. ever. But Habanos S.A. will simply rebrand those blends for the U.S. market: it won't have a Ramon Allones band on it, but the blend will taste the same.
Sorry for the novel, but that's my 2 cents.
